🔗 Share this article

It was 60 days ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, the question was whether his displays were a symptom or a cause of the side's wider issues.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. As Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their opening six matches, find themselves just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Serious Hopefuls?

That’s a particularly tough proposition to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, even as the positive results have accumulated.

As per Opta, on just two occasions has the team had an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a club which has strung together 10 in a row, they appear curiously susceptible – but at the moment the margins are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their star man to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.

His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. Against United, the opposition registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.

A statistical correction may well be the greatest opponent Villa have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still return to peak condition.

• The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
• The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.

This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital England player.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.