🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform Trader Profited $436,000 from Bets on Maduro's Downfall. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor earned a substantial sum by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader immediately preceding it was officially announced, leading to inquiries about the possibility of profiting from non-public details of the event. Sudden Shift in Wagers Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the end of January increased in the period preceding former President Trump declared on January 3rd that Maduro had been taken into custody. One account, which joined the platform last month and placed four wagers, all on Venezuela, made more than $436K from a modest bet of over $32,000. The identity is unknown. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before News Break Trading information shows that traders estimated the likelihood of a political change at just a low 6.5 percent in the afternoon of the prior Friday. Yet the odds had climbed to 11% by the end of the day and spiked dramatically in the morning of the next day, pointing to a sudden change in positions immediately prior to the social media post was made. "This specific wager has all the signs of a bet based on confidential knowledge," stated an industry expert. A handful of other traders also earned significant sums from similar wagers. Political Attention Intensifies Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention. A bill introduced on recently seeks to ban government employees from participating on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a bet. Industry Context Prediction markets have surged in popularity in recent years, with traders able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to current affairs. Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. Yet it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency. Trading on insider information is a crime in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the prediction market industry. An official representative for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids insider trading of any form."