Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
